Green BESS Forecast — What-If Scenarios
The Green BESS Forecast tracks the economic development of PV-BESS co-location projects in Germany — fully market-based, without EEG subsidies. All values in EUR/MWh relative to annual PV generation. Data basis: 5 what-if market price scenarios for 2026–2045 — not developed in collaboration with FfE.
The 5 Price Scenarios at a Glance
phelas analytics — proprietary market price forecasts, Q1 2026 Edition
The 5 price scenarios are not classic point forecasts but a "what-if lab" for testing PV, wind and storage revenues under different market and transformation pathways. The basis is real 2024 market behaviour (prices, generation and load profiles), on which a "booster logic" for solar, wind and flexibility buildout is applied per scenario.
Price Scenario 1
Disorderly Transition (Worst Case)
Delayed energy transition and grid expansion — renewables catch up only late. Persistently high, highly volatile prices with strong cannibalisation; negative price hours rise to very high levels (~1,600 h/year).
Price Scenario 2
Downside but Plausible
A slower, costlier but undisrupted transition. Gas remains price-setting for longer; prices decline only gradually and stay elevated. Moderate erosion of the solar capture rate.
Price Scenario 3
Central / Managed Transition
Reference scenario: RE targets largely achieved, system stays balanced and investable. Moderate price level; negative price hours fall to roughly 300–400 h/year by 2060.
Price Scenario 4
Fast Transition, Low Flexibility
Very high RE buildout but insufficient flexibility, storage and grid expansion. Very low prices from strong cannibalisation; negative price hours reach extreme levels (~1,800 h/year).
Price Scenario 5
Coordinated & Flexible
Best-case scenario: high RE buildout meets proactive grid, storage and flexibility expansion. Prices and capture rates stay close together; negative price hours fall to a few dozen h/year by 2060.
Green BESS Forecast 2026–2030
EUR / MWhRelated
Note: All analyses and figures are based on simplified model assumptions and historical market data. They are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute investment advice. Project-specific analyses account for individual site parameters, current market prices, and financing structures.
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