Green BESS Forecast FfE

The Green BESS Forecast tracks the economic development of PV-BESS co-location projects in Germany — fully market-based, without EEG subsidies. All values in EUR/MWh relative to annual PV generation. Data basis: FfE market modellings for 2026–2030.

UnitEUR / MWh

Data basisFfE Modelling H1 2026

Period2026–2030

Project10MW Grid + 10MWp PV + BESS

Trend Scenario

Base scenario

Extrapolates the current trajectory of electricity prices, expansion paths and market design. Gradual adjustment without structural break.

Target Scenario

Accelerated buildout

Assumes accelerated implementation of energy policy targets — tends toward more volatile prices with stronger price spread, which can lead to higher arbitrage revenues.

Green BESS Forecast 2026–2030

EUR / MWh

Storage power

Duration

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Trend scenario

Target scenario

PV Only (Trend)

PV Only (Target)

Historical 2025158,9 EUR/MWh·Forecast 2026 (Trend)130,2 EUR/MWh·Forecast 2030 (Trend)107,0 EUR/MWh

i2025 shows historical actual market data (identical for both scenarios), normalised to measured PV annual generation 2025 (8,533.21 MWh). From 2026, values are based on modelled FfE future data (fully merchant, no EEG subsidy), normalised to avg. 11,006.78 MWh PV annual generation.

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Research Partner

Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft e.V. (FfE)

FfE is one of Germany's leading independent research institutes for energy economics. The market modellings for the Green BESS Forecast were developed in joint cooperation with phelas's Catalyst model. Data is available for Germany and other European markets.

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Index

Green Storage Index

Historical revenue benchmarks for EEG-compliant storage — 2025 backtest across configurations.

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Market Economics

How battery storage earns revenue — FCR, aFRR, intraday, day-ahead and EEG optimisation explained.

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Note: All analyses and figures are based on simplified model assumptions and historical market data. They are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute investment advice. Project-specific analyses account for individual site parameters, current market prices, and financing structures.

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