Portfolio Optimization for a Mix of Wind, BESS and Storage at a fixed Grid Connection

Portfolio AnalysisMrz 2026·Illustrative Daten

PV + Wind + BESS · 900 Scenarios

Portfolio Optimization for a Mix of Wind, BESS and Storage at a fixed Grid Connection

phelas analysed 900 portfolio configurations on a 100 MW grid connection — systematically varying PV, wind and BESS shares across all meaningful combinations. The result: storage is the dominant lever, not wind. The optimal hybrid portfolio with ancillary services achieves a VALCOE of 43.5 €/MWh — roughly 33% below the best no-storage portfolio.

43.5 €/MWh

Best VALCOE

80% PV · 50% wind · 400 MWh · DA+Ancillary

−33%

vs. best no-storage

65.1 €/MWh reference (140% PV · 50% wind)

900

Scenarios simulated

PV 50–140% · Wind 50–140% · BESS 0–400 MWh

133%

Market capture rate

Optimal portfolio · Selling above market average

Executive Summary

This study evaluates 900 portfolio configurations on a fixed 100 MW grid connection — combining PV (50–140 MWp), wind (50–140 MW) and BESS (0–400 MWh) across all meaningful combinations. The central finding: storage is the dominant value lever in hybrid portfolios — not wind.

A 400 MWh BESS reduces VALCOE by 33% versus the best no-storage portfolio (43.5 vs. 65.1 €/MWh), cuts curtailment from 12% to 2%, and lifts market capture rate from 91–111% to 133%. Wind alone barely moves these metrics. Ancillary services (FCR/aFRR) add a structurally separate revenue channel accessible only to BESS — shifting the portfolio optimum from 100% PV to 80% PV with an additional 17.1 €/MWh VALCOE improvement.

The recommended portfolio — 80% PV, 50% wind, 400 MWh BESS — achieves a VALCOE of 43.5 €/MWh with a CapEx of €171.7M. The CapEx difference versus the Day-Ahead-only optimum is just €2.9M.